Are forest management practices to improve carbon balance compatible with maintaining bird diversity under climate change? A case study in Eastern North America

The combination of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance significantly impacts forest bird assemblages. Assessing the cumulative effects of forest management and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage and provisioning of wood products is key to informing forest management and conservation decision making. Specifically, we projected changes in forest composition and structure according to various forest management strategies under a changing climate using LANDIS-II for two case study areas of Quebec (Canada): a hemiboreal (Hereford Forest) and a boreal (Montmorency Forest) area. Then, we assessed projected bird assemblage changes, as well as sensitive and at-risk species. As part of an integrated assessment, we evaluated the best possible management measures aimed at preserving avian diversity and compared them with optimal options for mitigation of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Forest management and climate change were projected to lead to significant changes in bird assemblages in both types of forest through changes in forest composition. We projected an increase in deciduous vegetation which favored species associated with mixed and deciduous stands to the detriment of species associated with older, coniferous forests. Changes were more pronounced in Hereford Forest than Montmorency Forest. In addition, Hereford’s bird assemblages were mainly affected by climate change, while those in Montmorency Forest were more impacted by forest management. We estimated that 25% of Hereford and 6% of Montmorency species will be sensitive to climate change, with projected abundance changes (positive or negative) exceeding 25%. According to the simulations, a decrease in the level of forest harvesting could benefit bird conservation and contribute to reduction of carbon emissions in the boreal forest area. Conversely, the hemiboreal forest area require trade-offs, as mitigation of carbon emissions is favored by more intensive forest management that stimulates the growth and carbon sequestration of otherwise stagnant stands.